Risk vs. Uncertainty

Was listening to a podacast and they were talking about how people do not understand the difference between Risk and Uncertainty. The lack of knowing this causes people to make grave financial mistakes. Also not understanding can really effect your view of the world.

a great example I heard of the difference is the concept of a bucket with balls in it. Risk is something you know the odds for, lets say 50% of the balls in the bucket are red, what would you bet the first ball is red. Uncertainty is something you do not know any odds / in our example there are 100 balls in the bucket, it is unknown what % is red and if there are any Red balls in the bucket! Taking a wager on if a red ball will be pulled is a serious uncertainty.

The Stranger in the Woods: The Extraordinary Story of the Last True Hermit by Michael Finkel

I grew up less then a 1/2 hour from the hermits camp and I am quite familiar with the woods. The book is a good read about the hermit and details his story very well. It is well written and kept my interest.
The book also details how he was able to get the story by writing to Knight in prison and going to visit him in jail. Also Finkel went to the campsite and surrounding woods and gives a good description of what it was like while he was there for over 25 years.
Below are some of my favorite quotes from the book:

Knight did not have a pet in the woods but the closest to it was a mushroom..

The Hermit grew up very close to where it did around the same time. This description of riding around seemed very farmiliar to kids in semi-rural Maine.

Lastly this info about isolation and how it effects on people really shocked me.

AUG Conference – 10th year presenting

will be giving my 10th presentation at this years AUG (Air Operators Users Group)conference in New Orleans on Jan 17-19. I have been part of this conference since 2000. A great conference focused on users with great knowledge exchange!
Below is a info-graphic I created using Canva that lists all of them over the years including the topics.